Get Cape, a no-bullshit mobile provider focused on privacy and security, and get $20 off your monthly bill.

An announcement regarding continued coverage of the conflict - IRAN WAR NEWS - 9-May-2026

ANNOUNCEMENT: As of 9-May-2026 i will be drastically curtailing my coverage of the US-Israel-Iran conflicts. I had thought that an end to these conflicts was in sight, but i no longer think that is true. It appears this conflict, and others to come, are going to last a long time, potentially several years or even a decade or more, and covering all this on a daily basis requires a lot more time than i want to invest over that long of a span. I will therefore be posting only select updates from this point on and not necessarily on a daily basis. To understand my reasoning, i'll refer you to the following article:

Read: The bigger picture: It's not about Iran.

US "ACHIEVEMENTS" IN IRAN WAR:

  • Strait of Hormuz forced open: FAIL (Iran is in full control of the strait (that was open and free before the US-Israel attack))
  • US blockade of Strait of Hormuz: LIMITED SUCCESS (US Navy cannot approach Iran coast nor patrol the immense area of the waters)
  • elimination of nuclear enrichment program: FAIL
  • elimination of nuclear weapon program: INAPPLICABLE (Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons, or at least they weren't prior to the US-Israel attack)
  • seizure of highly enriched uranium: FAIL
  • elimination of ballistic missile program: FAIL
  • elimination of navy: PARTIAL SUCCESS (best yet to come if US continues to FAFO)
  • elimination of air force: PARTIAL SUCCESS (destruction largely irrelevant)
  • regime change: PARTIAL SUCCESS, if you want to call it that (new ayatollah is less US-friendly than his father was)
  • US involved in selection of new ayatollah: FAIL
  • US regional bases fully operational: FAIL
  • US presence in Gulf states: COMPROMISED
  • threat to Israel eliminated: FAIL

Russia and China are Serious About Replacing the US as the Persian Gulf Power Brokers (Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst)

The term "security architecture" in the Persian Gulf is not new diplomatic language invented for these visits. Russia has been proposing a "collective security architecture in the Gulf" since at least 2019, with Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterating that proposal as recently as February 28, 2026, the day the war began. China has backed Russia's proposed collective security concept, which would replace the Gulf's US defense umbrella and position Russia as a power broker alongside - or instead of - the US.

During his conversation with President Putin, Foreign Minister Araghchi said that Iran "supports the establishment of a new post-war regional architecture that can coordinate development and security." In a subsequent meeting China's Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister stated that Beijing "supports the establishment of a regional peace and security architecture by which regional countries jointly participate, safeguard common interests, and achieve common development." S&P Global

Wang Yi also called the US-Israel war on Iran "illegitimate" and articulated three essential Chinese positions: support for all of Iran's reasonable claims, support for the withdrawal of US military bases across the Persian Gulf, and active participation in the post-war order.

The term "security architecture" is diplomatic code for a fundamental restructuring of who provides security in the Gulf, on what terms, and who gets excluded. The concept has several concrete components:

First, removal of US forces. The core demand - shared by Iran, Russia, and China - is that the United States withdraw its military bases, carrier strike groups, and security guarantees from the Gulf region. This would include bases in Bahrain (home of the US Fifth Fleet), Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Second, replacement with a regional framework. The proposed coalition would include the Gulf states, Russia, China, and other stakeholders in a multilateral framework, with Russia arguing its advantage is that it maintains good relations with all parties - including Iran - unlike the United States.

Third, Iran as a legitimate regional power. Araghchi told Iranian media that "our Chinese friends believe that Iran after the war is different from Iran before the war. Its international standing has improved, and it has demonstrated its capabilities and power. Therefore, a new era of cooperation between Iran and other countries is ahead." The architecture therefore formally legitimizes Iran's dominant role in Gulf security rather than treating it as a threat to be contained. ING THINK

Fourth, management of the Strait of Hormuz. The PGSA and Iran's transit permit system described earlier is effectively the first concrete institutional manifestation of this architecture - Iran asserting sovereign-style administrative authority over the world's most critical chokepoint.

Fifth, linkage to the broader multipolar order. The Russia-Iran-China triangle has emerged as the driving force behind what its proponents call "Eurasian integration and multipolarity," with the Gulf security architecture as a microcosm of the new global order China is driving at a macro level.

[...]

[...] While chatting with a new friend who is well connected to Pakistan's intelligence service (i.e., ISI), he told me that a very senior official in the ISI - his personal friend - told him earlier this week that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are going to cut security ties with the US... They reportedly want to move under a security umbrella offered by Russia and China.

Former NATO Secretary General announced the collapse of the alliance due to Trump's decisions

The decision of US President Donald Trump to withdraw troops from Germany and the revision of the decision on the deployment of Tomahawk missiles indicate the "disintegration of NATO," said former NATO Secretary General and former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

"What we are witnessing now is the disintegration of NATO, and this is dangerous. President Trump has sown so many doubts about his commitment to Article 5 and the defense of Europe that there can only be one conclusion for Europeans: we must stand on our own two feet and be able to defend our continent on our own," Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in an interview with the German newspaper Die Welt.

12bytes: The Russia portion of the US plan to strangle Asia economically has been delegated to the EU while the US focuses on other objectives.

US imposes sanctions on Chinese firms over alleged aid to Irans defense sector

The US Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on ten individuals and companies, several of them based in China and Hong Kong, for their alleged involvement in helping Iran obtain weapons and the necessary raw materials for its Shahed drones and ballistic missiles.

Guardian: The United States has removed the entire stockpile of enriched uranium from Venezuela

This is reported by the British newspaper The Guardian, citing the US Department of Energy.

We are talking about 13.5 kg of uranium, which until recently was located in a research laboratory in the vicinity of Caracas.

The journalists explained that at the moment the seized raw materials have already been transported to North America.

According to them, the cargo was successfully delivered to one of the specialized facilities of the American government department in the state of South Carolina.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump said that the United States had sold 100 million barrels of Venezuelan oil and planned to double this figure over the next month.