THE ASIA PIVOT - 24-May-2026

May 24, 2026

ANNOUNCEMENT: As of 9-May-2026 i have drastically curtailed my coverage of the US-Israel-Iran conflicts. I had thought that an end to these conflicts was in sight, but i no longer think that is true. It appears this conflict, and others to come, are going to last a long time, potentially a decade or more, and covering all this on a daily basis requires a lot more time than i want to invest. I will therefore be posting only select updates from this point on and not necessarily on a daily basis. To understand the bigger picture, i'll refer you to the following article:

Read: The bigger picture: It's not about Iran.

US "ACHIEVEMENTS" IN IRAN WAR:

Strait of Hormuz forced open: FAIL (Iran is in full control of the strait (that was open and free before the US-Israel attack))
US blockade of Strait of Hormuz: LIMITED SUCCESS (US Navy cannot approach Iran coast nor patrol the immense area of the waters)
elimination of nuclear enrichment program: FAIL
elimination of nuclear weapon program: INAPPLICABLE (Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons, or at least they weren't prior to the US-Israel attack)
seizure of highly enriched uranium: FAIL
elimination of ballistic missile program: FAIL
elimination of navy: PARTIAL SUCCESS (best yet to come if US continues to FAFO)
elimination of air force: PARTIAL SUCCESS (destruction largely irrelevant)
regime change: PARTIAL SUCCESS, if you want to call it that (new ayatollah is less US-friendly than his father was)
US involved in selection of new ayatollah: FAIL
US regional bases fully operational: FAIL
US presence in Gulf states: COMPROMISED
threat to Israel eliminated: FAIL

Brian Berletic: America's Future: A Prosperous, Peaceful Nation, or a Bankrupt, Violent Empire? - YouTube

The US hypothetically seeking a constructive role among nations rather than seeking dominance over them is for a nation that wants to be stable. The current US strategy is driven by a desire to be supreme. Historically, when a great power chooses supremacy over stability, the transition to a new international order usually happens through a major crisis - like a world war - rather than a "grand bargain."

Russia And China Strengthen Strategic Partnership Amidst Ever-Greater Multipolar World

Relations between Russia and China continue to develop, with an increasing process of integration between both countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to China brought clear signs that the strategic partnership between both countries is taking on an increasingly solid nature, as there seem to be no limits to their bilateral partnership.
[...]
Putin and Xi also reiterated the need to restore respect for international law in its original, classic form, based on international treaties, rather than (Western-imposed) "rules." Both leaders called for respect for the UN Charter and an end to the illegal imposition of unilateral sanctions - a measure that is utterly illegitimate under international law.
[...]
There are substantial differences in how the Chinese perceive their country's dialogue with Russia and the US. Regarding the meeting with Trump, the prevailing opinion is that the American leader tried to convince China to halt its energy cooperation with Iran in exchange for unappealing technology agreements with the US - something the Chinese obviously refused, since oil cooperation with Tehran is a matter of energy security, unlike the technological partnership with the US, which is optional given China's advantageous position in the AI race.
Regarding Russia, however, the stance is different. The meeting between Putin and Xi showed that there is mutual respect between the two leaders, without attempts to impose unilateral agendas.

China-Russia Alliance Locked In, Will Gloves Come Off?

Putin returns from Beijing with 40 signed agreements covering energy, aviation, AI, and rare earths, while Xi Jinping and Russia have quietly dismantled the last barrier to a fully integrated economic alliance, leaving Europe and the United States with almost nothing to show for their own diplomatic efforts. Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris of The Duran break down what the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal, China's historic decree to shield its companies from US sanctions, and Russia's formal declaration as a civilizational state actually mean for the balance of global power. Is the multipolar world no longer a theory but a reality being signed into existence one deal at a time?
00:00:00 Introduction: Putin and Xi summit overview
00:00:28 Power of Siberia 2 and the energy lockdown
00:01:12 Comparing Putin visit vs Trump visit to China
00:02:21 Nabiullina and financial system integration
00:03:43 China decree: ignoring US sanctions on Russian energy
00:06:08 Power of Siberia 2 signing ceremony imminent
00:07:38 Nuclear energy, AI and rare earths cooperation
00:09:00 Why Putin got deals and Trump got nothing
00:10:12 Aviation collaboration revival: Russia China aircraft
00:12:36 China rejects Boeing, forges ahead with own aviation
00:13:27 Russia declares itself a civilizational state, breaks from Europe
00:15:23 Putin returns to Moscow: drone attacks and Ukraine
00:16:24 European leaders hoping to provoke Russian retaliation
00:18:40 Trump and Putin expected to speak; Americans do not want escalation
00:19:30 Ukraine as a failing state and Putin's position of strength

White House to announce Iran agreement on Sunday, says report | Middle East Eye

The White House hopes to resolve remaining disputes with Iran in the coming hours and announce an agreement on Sunday, according to Axios, which cited a US official.
The report said the two sides are working towards a memorandum of understanding and that President Donald Trump is prepared to reset relations with Tehran if it meets US demands regarding its nuclear programme.
According to Axios, the proposed agreement would include a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, with US forces remaining in the region unless a final deal is reached.
The framework would reportedly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran clearing mines while the US eases oil sanctions and lifts its port blockade.
Iran would commit not to pursue nuclear weapons, while future talks would address uranium enrichment limits, the handling of existing nuclear materials and possible sanctions relief tied to verified Iranian concessions.
The draft agreement also reportedly contains a ceasefire framework aimed at ending the conflict in Lebanon.

Peace is at Hand? Don't Hold Your Breath

Not since Neville Chamberlain returned from negotiating with Hitler in Munich on September 30, 1938 have we seen such a spectacle of deception and false hope. Trump, using his Truth Social platform, has been busy this weekend proclaiming:
"An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. . . . Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened."
The Iranians, however, have a different take: Trump's claim about the Strait of Hormuz returning to its previous state is not true. [...]
According to the latest exchanged text, if a possible agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will still be under Iran's management. Although Iran has agreed to allow the number of passing ships to return to the pre-war level, this does not mean "free passage" to the pre-war situation in any way. Accordingly, the management of the strait, determining the route, time, manner of passage, and issuing permits will remain exclusively under the control and discretion of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, Trump's claim in this regard is incomplete and inconsistent with reality.
It is also worth mentioning that Trump had previously announced negotiations about Iran's nuclear program as one of the main and inseparable conditions of any agreement. However, no commitment has been made by Iran, and the nuclear issue has not been discussed at this stage.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia reportedly just floated a non-aggression pact with Iran.

'Nightmare for Israel': Republican hawks attack Trump's emerging Iran deal | Middle East Eye

Senior US Republicans have launched a rare public rebuke of President Donald Trump over the reported terms of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, warning they include major concessions that would strengthen Tehran and undermine Israel.

Israel In Panic Over 'Very Bad' Deal With Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is convening coalition party leaders and Israeli security chiefs for a discussion on the deal taking shape between the United States and Iran to end the war, Channel 12 news reported on May 23.
The report, which describes the deal in the making as "very bad" for Israel, quotes an Israeli official asserting that envoy Steve Witkoff is pushing hardest for President Donald Trump to accept the deal. Israel sees Witkoff as the main player "who wants a deal at almost any price, and is placing immense pressure on Trump not to resume the war."

Haaretz says Netanyahu's influence over Trump has declined | Middle East Eye

Relations between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are no longer as strong as they once were, according to the military and security affairs editor of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
The commentator said Israel's influence over Trump has diminished and argued that signs of a possible agreement between Washington and Tehran are not favourable to Israel.
The assessment comes amid growing concern among Israeli political and security figures over reports that the United States and Iran are nearing a diplomatic settlement.

IN OTHER NEWS...

Israeli man arrested for smuggling human embryos in Northern Cyprus

The Israeli man was arrested at Gate 8 security checkpoint of the Ercan International Airport last Tuesday after he was found carrying the four human embryos sealed in test tubes inside a specialized transport container labelled "Life Parcel."
He was arrested just moments before boarding a flight bound for Mexico via Istanbul.