What now? Exploring potentials of the Iran-Israel-U.S. affair.

Earlier today the lovely Rachael Blevins produced a short video titled Trump's attack on Iran wasn't meant to "do the job." It was meant to provoke a response. in which she posited that, as you may have guessed, the U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear sites was intended to provoke a response from Iran so that Israel and the U.S. could proceed with their regime change scheme which was always the primary goal. After considering what she said, i wrote the following response in my post, Iran-Israel-U.S. developments - IRAN ATTACKS US BASES (23-Jun-2025):

The purpose of the attack may also have been to provide an exit-ramp for Trump by allowing him to claim, as he did, that the U.S. obliterated Iran's nuclear program, which he did not, and thus wash his hands of the whole thing, claim victory, and save what ever is left of his zombified Christian-Zionist support base. Of course this assumes that Iran won't retaliate. While many people expect Iran to bomb U.S. military bases in the ME, i'm not so sure.

The Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities accomplished exactly nothing regarding Iran's nuclear enrichment program for peaceful purposes. As Scott Ritter said, the U.S. basically put on a multi-million dollar fireworks show by bombing some sand dunes. In other words, while Iran is sort of playing up the damage for strategic reasons, they may be a lot less pissed-off than observers might assume. By bombing sites that were already bombed by Israel, for which the nuclear materials had already been relocated, and giving Iran 48 hours advance notice, and by not using any resources from ME military bases that are within Iran's reach, Trump seems to be cowering to Iran and essentially begging them to not retaliate.

Given the massively embarrassing failures of the U.S. to deter the Houthi's, to win its proxy war with Russia, and to prevent missiles from penetrating Israel's "Iron Dome", which includes it's inability to intercept Iran's hyper-sonic missiles, the United States military is looking spectacularly weak and thus i think the scenario i outlined seems quite logical ... either that, or i'm completely wrong and the delusional D.C. ding-bats are actually demented enough to think they accomplished something by blowing up sand dunes.

Well, very shortly after penning the above, i learned of Iran's attack on the U.S. military base in Qatar, so i guess i was wrong about Iran not attacking U.S. bases in the Middle East, but i'm not sure my overall hypothesis is wrong.

Iran had foreknowledge of the U.S. attack on its nuclear facilities Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, yet apparently it launched no aircraft nor air defense missiles, as though Iran decided to allow the attack without intervening, and why shouldn't they? Surface structures at Fordow and Natanz had already been destroyed by Israel which, for some reason i can't fathom other than optics, Israel again bombed just hours after Trump declared that all three facilities were "completely and fully obliterated". Israel's latest attack on the Fordow facility may seem nonsensical at first, but i think there is an explanation as i touched on in my earlier comment.

For a variety of technical reasons, U.S. 'bunker busting' bombs, nuclear or otherwise, seem to be substantially less effective than it says on the tin. In addition to Iran locating its important military and nuclear sites deep underground, under rock, and likely out of reach of such weapons, there are a few other factors that place mapping and destroying the tunnels in the realm of 'good luck with that bro! LOL'.

As a result of its illegal attack on civilian nuclear facilities, the United States and its Israeli master now possess less knowledge regarding the whereabouts of Iran's uranium stockpile than it did previously when Iran allowed the IAEA to inspect its nuclear assets, a mistake Iran is not likely to repeat, but then the aggression toward Iran was never about its non-existent quest to develop nuclear weapons anyway. Iran is not only a threat to Israel's war-mongering and genocidal behavior in the region, but also to the U.S. dollar through its alliance with BRICS and Trump made very clear his feelings toward anyone who challenges the supremacy of the worlds reserve currency. Beyond that, Iran is rich in oil, more so than the United Arab Emirates according to Wikipedia, plus they control the Strait of Hormuz which is basically the spigot through which about 20% of the worlds oil flows, including oil for the United States, and that puts Iran in a very advantageous, and dangerous, position.

So the U.S. appears to have executed a very expensive token attack on previously destroyed civilian nuclear infrastructure, placing many American lives in danger in the process, not to mention that there was no uranium located at these facilities because Iran relocated it prior to the attacks. This ineffectual fireworks display is then followed by Iran engaging in a limited attack of a U.S. base in Qatar, but only after personnel and, presumably, key military hardware was evacuated. Everything about the actions of the U.S. suggests to me that Trump is desperate to find an off-ramp and declare some sort of conjured victory over Iran, as he did with Yemen's Ansar Allah who was kicked the ass of the U.S. military in the Red Sea, forcing them to pull out after two F-35s 'fell off' of their carrier. I have heard that the U.S. doesn't intend to respond to Iran's missiling of the Qatar base which, if true, is confirmation that Trump lacks confidence in taking on Iran proper.

All this leads me to believe that direct U.S.-Iran confrontation may actually be a one-off deal as Trump stated it was, which of course would be a good thing, however there's always the Israel factor and its extremely powerful influence on U.S. foreign policy.

"There's a major lobby in the United States. They are hard workers. They stay on top of every comment, the most powerful lobby in Washington. Israel has f---ed up United States foreign policy for years." -- Oliver Stone, American film director, screenwriter and producer, during an interview with The Times newspaper, Jul. 25, 2010 (source)

"Do not underestimate the Jewish lobby on Capitol Hill. That is the best organized lobby, you shouldn't underestimate the grip it has on American politics - no matter whether it's Republicans or Democrats." -- Karel de Gucht, former EU trade commissioner, in an interview with a Belgian radio station, quoted in Anger at EU chief's Middle East outburst, The Guardian, Sep. 2010 (source)

If we assume this is the end of a direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran, that still leaves Israel, the real problem. Absent some significant unforeseen event, Israel is completely incapable of defeating Iran without support from the U.S. and everything i'm seeing strongly suggests that Israel will fail even with U.S. support since it's getting that support now, as it has been for decades, yet is still getting its clock cleaned. Granted, Iran is taking damage too, but there's zero doubt about which one can both absorb and dish out punishment longer. Israel's population is splintered and Iran's population is celebrating in the streets and rallying around their government like never before while the Israeli's spend their days and nights in stuffy bomb shelters. Nevertheless, regime change remains a possibility and how the people of Iran would react to such a scenario is purely speculative i think. 

Israel is a cancer that desperately needs to be eviscerated, but is this even possible? Sure, the world is waking up to the recent genocide it has committed and continues to commit in Gaza and the West Bank, but most people, especially in the West, are probably not aware of the blood soaked history of Israel and its persecution of the Palestinians which dates back to 1948, and so i have to wonder if Israel, through all the media Jews control, cannot re-brand itself. This of course assumes that Israel, as a state, survives its suicidal actions of the day, but what form would the new and improved Israel take? Even if its government collapses and Netanyahu, a convicted criminal facing prison in Israel and elsewhere, is finally ousted, who's to say the next PM wouldn't be even more Zionistic in nature? After all, Israel, which is finally getting its first taste of war with an enemy that can fight back, has every reason to increase the weight of the chip on its shoulder and, assuming Israel survives, i don't think any other outcome is possible for "God's chosen people". Eliminating the far-right Lukid party is not enough.

Another scenario, but the least likely i'm sure, is that Iran obliterates the Israeli government and military, and demoralizes the population to the extent that it abandons its Zionist ideology and wants nothing to do with war forever more. This would not only benefit the Israeli and the Palestinian people, but also much of the rest of the world. In the case of the United States for example, there would be no more reason for AIPAC to exist and this could have a massive and positive effect on U.S. politics, both foreign and domestic. The glaring problem with this scenario is Israel's potential invocation of its Sampson Option which is a scenario where, if the very existence of Israel is at stake, it launches all of its nukes and takes everyone else down with it.

Another potential scenario is that the U.S. is destroyed in a political and economic sense. The MAGA team is clearly fractured and Trump is on a path that could easily lead to impeachment, especially so if, at Israel's insistence, he continues to escalate the situation with Iran. Trumps exit would put Vance in charge and given he's about as big of a Zionist tool as Trump, his days may also be numbered. The economic front is a very concerning one because Iran has the power to rain economic havoc upon the U.S. if it chooses to close the Strait of Hormuz. The every day, dumbed-down American doesn't really give a shit about what goes on beyond the bubble they exist in, but they sure as hell pay attention to how far their paycheck goes and if oil doubles in price, so does everything else, and Iran can make that happen in an instant.

Another scenario is that Iran pulls out of the NPT agreement and actually builds 'the bomb' which, to Trump's and Netanyahu's, credit, it is quite close to given that one more round of its 60% enriched uranium through its centrifuges yields 90% enriched weapons grade uranium. How much more time is needed to turn that into a warhead and stick it on a missile, i don't really know. With a nuclear weapon in hand, Iran can probably tell both the U.S. and Israel to fuck off and there'd be nothing they could do about it short of nuclear war. In my opinion Iran should've done this long ago as this may have averted the situation they, and the rest of the world, currently finds itself in. This would not have aleviated the plight of the Palestinians however and it is they that Iran has been fighting for, in part.

What i think may be the most likely scenario is that Israel survives as a Zionist state, at least for the short term, that being measured in decades potentially. How that would happen given Iran's stated intent to keep bombing Israel until its Zionist back is broken, i don't know. And here i shall inject something no one is talking about, that being the advanced weaponry possessed by the United States that Trump referred to in the last weeks. Trump of course has no clue what the U.S. really possesses because the president of the United States is a temporary employee who thusly isn't privy to the unacknowledged special access programs in which this technology is developed. What Trump referrers to as "high-tech" weaponry is very conventional stuff; planes, missiles, bombs, etc.. I won't elaborate on this subject because the really highly advanced weaponry is unlikely to be unleashed in any theater of war in the near future even though the U.S., and very possibly Russia and China, apparently possess the technology necessary to turn any nation state into a big dust spot in a matter of minutes. For more on this subject i would refer you to the Disclosure Project Intelligence Archive.

How this plays out if Israel, Iran and the U.S. all survive is beyond me. I can't see how Iran can survive in the long run if it allows Israel to do so, yet it seems exceptionally impractical that Iran can truly break the back of the Zionist beast to the point where Israel is no longer the worlds hemorrhoid that it currently is.

The worst scenario is some moron pushing The Big Red Button, be it Israel, the U.S., Pakistan, China, or some other nation state i'm not considering. Russia has so far not entered the fray in a physical way and while i find it disappointing they have not come to Iran's aid in a more tangible way, such involvement could escalate the situation well beyond the disaster it already is. China has a huge interest in Iran's petroleum and they have sent what appears to be intelligence gathering war ships to the region which may or may not supply information to the Iranians. There are also reports of other gifts being sent by China for Iran.

The situation is a big fat mess and no one seems to have a handle on what's going to go down. I can't see things cooling down as long as Iran continues to attack Israel, yet i, along with much of the rest of the world, hope they dismantle Israel and teach both Israel and the U.S. a lesson they'll not soon forget. Both Israel and the United States are terrorist nations who have zero regard for international law, much less any semblance of ethics or respect. In the case of Israel, i think they are driven largely by a perceived superiority complex provided by their demented religious beliefs while the U.S. empire and its economy is fueled by perpetual war and weapon sales and its desire to remain an empire. Whether it wins or loses its wars is largely irrelevant. For those that haven't yet done so, i'd suggest reading the book, Report From Iron Mountain - On the Possibility & Desirability of Peace. The book was one of my earlier introductions into how the world really works and though its authenticity of the report is disputed, it matters not since it mirrors the reality right under our noses.

Given the current pace of the unfolding events, everything i've said here could be completely obsolete in a matter of hours. I'd like to hope that cooler heads will prevail, but that is a completely delusional pipe dream given that both the Israeli and U.S. governments are criminal psychopaths and thugs.

A few hours later ...

And there it is, the game changer i failed to predict (emphasis mine).

Iran vs the US and Israel - Kabuki Theater on Steroids

My hopes that Donald Trump would finally act like a responsible adult are dashed. He's a dangerous buffoon. While the team around him are working frantically to maintain the fiction that Trump has a vision and is calling the shots on the foreign policy front, he is careening around the globe like an out-of-control cue ball on a billiards table. It started a week ago... first, he claimed to know everything about the timing of the Israeli decapitation attack, and then, within 48 hours, denied knowing anything. He insists he wants peace but did nothing to stop Israel from launching an unprovoked attack on Iran on the eve of negotiations in Oman between the US and Iran.

Now comes the Sunday morning bombings of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The White House insists that all were obliterated and that Iran's nuclear program waswiped out. Only one teeny, tiny problem... none of the satellite imagery supports that claim. Before Sunday, we knew where Iran's enriched uranium was located and IAEA inspectors had access to the three sites. Now? Iran removed the enriched uranium to a classified site and is moving to end IAEA inspections of Iran's nuclear program.

[...]

Then, today in Washington, DC around 6 pm, Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

While Trump is desperately trying to take credit for these developments, the ceasefire happened in spite of him, not because of his actions. I suspect that Russia, with an assist from China, made this happen. The real story is that Israel caved. Notwithstanding the massive pro-Israel propaganda campaign claiming that Iran was crumpling under Israel's assault, Iran's bevy of ballistic and cruise missiles wreaked havoc on Israel and caused significant damage. This is a major defeat for Netanyahu. Let's hope he is quickly ushered out of office.

Now what? And what happens to the Palestinians who are still being slaughtered? Israel doesn't do cease fires.

This isn't over, mark my words.